Egypt may end up without Ukrainian soybeans

Newspaper Title: http://www.blackseagrain.net

Newspaper Number:

Tuesday - 13 March 2018

Now, soybeans continue to be the most intriguing point for Ukraine. While UkrAgroConsult’s previous articles focused on topical issues of the domestic market and soybean production outlooks for the next 2018/19 season, today we’ll discuss a narrower aspect of trade relations between Ukraine and Egypt.

The first soybean shipments from Ukraine to Egypt started in the 2010/11 season, when the soybean crop exceeded 1.5 MMT for the first time and prompted exporters to expand end markets. By the way, Ukraine increased the number of export destinations by more than 10 markets over that season alone, when it already supplied soybeans to as many as 34 countries.

Since the very beginning of trade relations between the countries, Egypt has been staying on the top five list of importers of Ukrainian soybeans (3rd to 5th places in different times). The country’s export share remains significant at 8.8% to 24.2%.

Deliveries of Ukrainian soybeans to Egypt increased more than four times between MY 2010/11 and MY 2016/17. Remarkably, the last two seasons witnessed the highest exports from Ukraine to this country.

Meanwhile, statistics of the current season (September-January) shows a more than 43% drop in shipments to Egypt. Taking into account the outlook for the new 2018/19 season, Ukraine may sharply decrease soybean exports (in view of the cancellation of oilseed export VAT refunds and growth of domestic processing) that will inevitably entail further contraction in trade turnover between Ukraine and Egypt in this market segment.